The Ontario Power Authority has revised downwards its estimates for the amount of electricity a number of industries in Ontario’s manufacturing sector will use over the next eighteen years. The new estimates, released in December in a companion study to the Integrated Power System Plan process, update estimates made only three months earlier, in September.
The study is based on energy models for the various industries addressed by the Canadian Integrated Modelling System (CIMS). The revised estimates cover the “other manufacturing” category: a catchall term for industries outside the largest energy-using sectors: pulp and paper, chemical products, industrial minerals, iron and steel, metal smelting and refining, mining, and petroleum refining, each of which has its own model.
The OPA explains that during the September 14 stakeholder session when the original estimates were presented, the strong growth in “other manufacturing” was brought into question, in particular because of the dominant role “other manufacturing” played in the reference forecast. In response, the OPA agreed to undertake further investigation of the results of the sub-sector.
The revised estimates are shown in the graphs below. Details on the models are provided in the Modelling and Scenario Documentation Report available on the OPA Web site.