The availability of wind, top, and solar in winter and summer complement each other
The latest 18-month Reliability Outlook from the Independent Electricity System Operator carries its forecast from December forward by three months, showing little change in its generally favourable prognosis. The overall economic environment remains fairly positive for Ontario, it says, based on recent publicly available forecasts. Continued U.S. growth, a competitive Canadian dollar and low interest rates are conducive to growth in the province’s export-oriented energy-intensive manufacturing sector. However, uncertainty persists as a result of ongoing tariffs, continued interest rate increases from the Bank of Canada, and pending ratification of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). Barring these risks, Ontario should see increasing, albeit slowing, economic output throughout 2019 and 2020.
Comparison of normal and extreme weather: planned scenario reserve above requirement
Over the forecast period, peak demands will continue to face downward pressure from energy efficiency and the effects of the Industrial Conservation Initiative (ICI). Grid-supplied energy demand rebounded in 2018 compared to 2017. Looking forward, both energy and peak demand are expected to continue to decline in line with the trend experienced over the past five years.
The IESO expects to have sufficient generation supply for most of summer 2019, with potential risks in early September 2019 that can be mitigated by outage rescheduling. Over the next 18 months, approximately 1,500 MW of new generation is planned to come into service, while approximately 90 MW of generation will reach its end-of-contract life. This Reliability Outlook also reflects the continued availability of DR resources.