ONTARIO NEWS

As long as the weather stays within normal ranges, the reliability of Ontario’s electricity system remains positive for the next 18 months, the IESO says in its latest 18-Month Outlook. Domestic generation and transmission will be sufficient to supply Ontario’s demand under what the IESO defines as “normal weather conditions.”

          However, despite the generally positive outlook, the IESO noted in its 18-month report that, “Under extreme weather conditions, the reserve levels are below requirement, without reliance on imports, for thirteen weeks throughout summer 2019, in the firm scenario. Generators expecting to perform maintenance during the summer are advised to review their plans and consider rescheduling their outages, taking into consideration that the IESO’s outage management criterion for adequacy assumes at most 2,000 MW of imports. In summer 2018, the IESO experienced significant hot weather, causing the IESO to publish system advisory notices related to extreme temperature on at least nine days. In late June and early July, Ontario peak demand exceeded the 18-Month Outlook normal weather forecast on several occasions. Lower water conditions, particularly in northeastern Ontario, created resource availability challenges in addition to higher demand. To maintain reliability under these conditions, IESO actions can include committing additional generation and rejecting or revoking planned outages.”

          Over the forecast period (Q3 2018 – Q1 2020), peak demands will continue to face downward pressure from savings achieved through energy efficiency, embedded generation output and the Industrial Conservation Initiative (ICI). At the same time, the IESO says, demand in general has been trending up over the first part of 2018 and is expected to continue its rise through the year in 2018, as stronger economic growth in the industrial sector will likely result in increased electricity consumption.

          Growth in embedded generation capacity has plateaued, reducing one of the major offsets to demand increases.

          Over the period of winter 2018–19 to winter 2019–20, about 1,470 MW of new supply – 985 MW of gas, 375 MW of wind, 100 MW of solar and 15 MW of hydroelectric – is expected to be connected to the province’s transmission grid.

          In addition, starting in 2023, the IESO is forecasting a significant supply gap. See “Ontario expects to need another 1400 MW of capacity by 2023,” also in this issue of IPPSO FACTO. For further insight on how Ontario will manage its projected capacity shortfall, APPrO recommends attending the Canadian Power Conference, November 12 and 13 in Toronto, featuring Ontario Energy Minister Greg Rickford, Peter Gregg, the CEO of the IESO, and more than 50 other experts presenting their views on current options for the Ontario power system.

Table 4.1: Existing Generation Capacity as of August 24, 2018