The Independent Electricity System Operator has warned that Ontario’s power system may encounter supply challenges as early as this summer.
In its most recent 18-month Outlook, the IESO said, “Under extreme weather conditions, the reserve levels are below requirement, without reliance on imports, for a combined total of 24 weeks over the periods of June to September 2018 and 2019. Both generator and transmission outages may be placed at risk during this period. If extreme weather conditions occur, the IESO may, at that time, reject some generator maintenance outages to ensure that Ontario demand is met during the summer peak. Generators expecting to perform maintenance during the summer are advised to review their plans and consider rescheduling their outages.”
This acknowledgement may foreshadow a change in perspective by market participants in Ontario. Observers who held the view that Ontario is currently over-supplied with electrical power generating capacity may be reassessing their projections. The difficulties meeting reserve requirements could continue for some time, the report suggests.
The IESO is working on a refined system for assessing and approving scheduled generator outages. It has proposed “improvements to the outage approval process through using extreme weather instead of normal weather conditions. This outage approval criterion will increase resource availability during May to September, where resource deficits have been identified in extreme weather conditions in the 18-Month Outlook.”