The Ontario Energy Board released its long-term forecast on the price of atmospheric carbon emissions May 31.
Prepared by ICI Consulting Canada, ICI’s projections cover a low-high- and mid-range of assumptions, based on whether Ontario will or will not link its market with the joint Western Climate Initiative (WCI) in 2018. Under the former, California’s floor price is assumed to set the joint WCI floor price as it is assumed to be higher than Quebec’s; accordingly, California inflation rate of 1.8% is used across all years. Under the latter, the Ontario government would intervene to modify the design of the cap and trade program to hold the price of allowances at the top tier CCR price in order to avoid price shock or market failure.
Results are as follows:
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Minimum LTCPF |
Maximum LTCPF |
Mid-Range LTCPF |
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Quantitative Results (2017 Real CAD) |
2018: $17/tonne 2020: $18/tonne 2028: $27/tonne |
2018: $67/tonne 2020: $74/tonne 2028: $108/tonne |
2018: $17/tonne 2020: $18/tonne 2028: $57/tonne |