The outlook for the reliability of Ontario’s electricity system remains positive in the near term, the Independent Electricity System Operator says in its latest 18-Month Outlook, covering the period of March 2014 to August 2015.
Approximately 3,100 megawatts of new generation are expected to come online over the period, most of it transmission-connected renewable generation. At the same time, the province recently retired nearly 2,000 MW of coal-fired generation from the Nanticoke station. The last 300 MW of coal-fired generation, produced at the Thunder Bay coal facility, will also be removed from service in 2014, with half that capacity being converted to biomass fuel.
These changes have occurred without impacting reliability, a fact largely due to adaptations made by the IESO and its market partners in anticipation of the changes. Those new capabilities include dispatch capabilities for grid-connected wind and, soon, solar resources.
Variable generators are responding well to the new dispatch mechanism, the IESO says, which in turn is helping its operators balance fluctuations in supply and demand. Two other renewable integration initiatives, including real-time and forecast output from distribution-connected resources and enhanced forecasting for grid-connected facilities, are helping as well.
With better, more comprehensive information, the IESO says its control room is benefitting from two other renewable integration renewable integration initiatives, including real-time and forecast output from distribution-connected resources and enhanced forecasting for grid-connected facilities.
In the planned scenario, under normal weather, the reserve margin is adequate. Planned generator outages in the second quarter of 2015 are currently impacting the supply outlook for that period. If necessary, re-scheduling of planned outages will address this.