Ontario’s positive supply outlook over the next 18 months includes new resources, as well as new tools to effectively integrate renewable resources, according to the latest 18-Month Outlook now available at: www.ieso.ca/18-month.outlook.nov2012.
Approximately 2,200 megawatts (MW) of grid-connected renewable capacity will be added to the system between December 2012 and May 2014, including the completion of Ontario’s first transmission-connected solar project, a 100 MW solar farm in Haldimand County. By May 2014, distribution- and transmission-connected wind and solar generation in Ontario is expected to reach approximately 5,500 MW. In addition, two refurbished Bruce nuclear units have now completed commissioning and once these units have demonstrated sustained reliable performance, Ontario will be in a good position to continue the removal of coal-fired generation from the system.
The IESO is continuing with plans to move to an economic dispatch of variable generation. Regular day-ahead and pre-dispatch generator scheduling processes now incorporate a centralized forecast of wind output, which has improved the accuracy of forecasted wind production. In time, this forecast will also include Ontario’s large solar facilities. By the end of 2013, a five-minute forecast for variable generation will be integrated into the real-time scheduling process and, through the introduction of new market rules, grid-connected variable resources will become fully dispatchable.
Energy demand is forecast to decrease by 1.1 per cent in 2013 after a small 0.5 per cent increase in 2012. Factors such as growth in embedded generation capacity, which reduces demand from the bulk power system, and ongoing conservation initiatives will more than offset any impacts from population growth and economic expansion, leading to an overall decline in electricity consumption at the bulk power level.
The IESO regularly assesses the adequacy and reliability of Ontario’s power system, issuing the 18-Month Outlook on a quarterly basis.