Toronto: The IESO 18-Month Outlook for March 2012 to August 2013 projects that the Ontario system will remain robust over the next 18 months, with more than enough resources to meet consumers’ needs. During the coming year and a half, there will be more than 2,600 megawatts of capacity added to the grid, and the new 500 kilovolt double-circuit line from the Bruce Power complex to the Milton Switching Station will be completed to accommodate the full output from all eight generating units at the Bruce complex and the new renewable resources in southwestern Ontario. The additional generation includes:
• the return to service of two refurbished Bruce nuclear units with a capacity of 1,500 MW,
• 400 MW of gas-fired generation, and
• more than 700 MW of transmission-connected renewables, bringing the total wind and solar generation connected to the high-voltage transmission system and the low-voltage distribution system in Ontario to approximately 4,000 MW by August 2013.
The ongoing weakness of the global economy will continue to impact the Ontario economy over the forecast period, the IESO said. Conservation initiatives and the growth in embedded generation will put downward pressure on both peak demand and energy consumption. Combined, these impacts are forecast to limit the growth in energy consumption to 0.4% in 2012. The same factors suggest peak demand will decrease over the same period.
The report also notes that new sources of generation continue to come online to meet future supply needs and replace coal-fired capacity. The early incorporation of this supply has led to periods of surplus baseload generation. Growing volumes of variable generation, combined with lower off-peak demand for electricity, the return of two additional nuclear units, and the introduction of the new Bruce to Milton line are expected to increase the frequency and amount of surplus baseload generation over the outlook period. The IESO will continue to pursue additional actions to address this. The IESO 18-Month Outlook is issued on a quarterly basis and is available at http://ieso.ca/imoweb/pubs/marketReports/18MonthOutlook_2012feb.pdf.