Vancouver: An energy data group based at Simon Fraser University in British Columbia believe that the Canadian manufacturing sector may have effectively met the emission reduction targets specified in the original Kyoto protocol. More efficient energy use, a shift toward electricity, and transition to lower emission manufacturing processes each seems to have played a part.
“(F)uel-based emissions are down 10% in 2006 from 1990. Process emissions declined by an even more dramatic 20% for an overall emissions reduction of 13%,” says John Nyboer of the Canadian Industrial Energy End-use Data and Analysis Centre (CIEEDAC). Mr. Nyboer’s figures do not cover all industry in Canada, but did represent a stable group of manufacturers with significant economic output over the 16 year period.
The following comments are taken from CIEEDAC’s publication on industry data from February 2008:
“An aggregate view of energy consumption in Canadian manufacturing industry based on the Industrial Consumption of Energy (ICE) survey data suggests that overall consumption declined in 2006 by just over 4.7% after falling last year by 3.9% such that total energy consumption in the aggregate manufacturing sector is only marginally above what it was in 1990. While economic output dropped marginally from last year, GDP in this group is still some 47% higher than it was in 1990. Economic energy intensity indices have declined to a point where, for 2006, it took about 32% less energy to generate a dollar’s worth of goods than it did in 1990 (see diagram). Remember, this is not a measure of energy efficiency alone; structural shifts in the industrial sector that could improve intensity rates have also occurred.
Fuel mix changes
Over the last years, we have seen changes in fuel mixes. We see the trends noted in previous years continuing in the current year (see diagram). The trends have an impact on changes both GHG emissions and the relative ratio of primary to secondary energy. We provide some examples.
In terms of GHG emissions, we continue to see a shift in fossil fuels from the less intense, like natural gas, to the more intense like petroleum coke and coal-based fuels. Biomass consumption, flat for the last three years, has actually dropped while electricity continues to increase its market share. This shift toward electricity affects the ratio of primary to secondary energy.
Electricity generated through combustion of fossil fuels, considered “secondary” energy, has increased its share of electricity production by nearly 3% since 1990. All such transformations suffer from efficiency losses; a shift to “secondary” electricity generally involves an even bigger shift in the primary energy (read “fossil fuels”) consumed to make the electricity.
Impact on GHG emissions
With the decline in levels of energy consumption and in spite of some shifts to more CO2-dense fuels, GHG emission levels in Canadian industry as defined in the ICE data (i.e., manufacturing industries) declined by nearly 4% from last year to a level now 9.6% lower than 1990. In other words, this set of industries (a consistent group since 1990) has as good as met its Kyoto target! In fact, if one were to include all process related emissions, generation of emissions from the manufacturing sector, metal and non-metal mining is some 13% below the level of emissions it generated in 1990. Note that this does NOT include mining and upstream stream oil and gas, including oil sands, or indirect emissions.”
Nyboer notes that the energy supply sector has a very different emissions profile than the manufacturing sector. Both the upstream oil and gas sector and the electricity supply sector have shown significant increases in emissions since 1990. That said, since 2003, emissions from the electricity supply sector have declined while generation has increased based on the most currently available data from Statistics Canada.
Source: Statistics Canada ICE (energy data), CANSIM Table 379-0017 (GDP), Informetrica (Gross Output).