The National Energy Board (NEB) released its updated long-term energy outlook October 26. The outlook shows Canadians will likely use less fossil fuel in the future, thanks to climate policy and technology. The report also explores additional scenarios for climate policy and new technologies and their potential implications for Canadian energy consumption and production trends.
Canada’s Energy Future 2017: Energy Supply and Demand Projections to 2040 explores how possible energy futures might unfold for Canadians over the long term. The report uses economic and energy models to make projections based on certain sets of assumptions given past and recent trends.
The report’s baseline outlook is the Reference Case, based on a current economic outlook, a moderate view of energy prices, and includes climate and energy policies similar to those announced at the time of analysis. This projection shows Canadian fossil fuel use peaking around 2019, and flattening out in the long term.
The report also looks at two scenarios to examine climate policy and technology trends beyond those included in the Reference Case. The Higher Carbon Price case considers the impact of carbon pricing that continues to increase in the long term. The Technology Case considers increased carbon pricing plus the greater adoption of select emerging production and consumption energy technologies such as electric vehicles and solar power.
All three cases included in Canada’s Energy Future 2017 show Canada reducing its fossil fuel consumption trends compared to previous outlooks. And despite these reductions, the outlook for economic growth and energy production is similar to or higher than in recent Energy Futures outlooks. The results also suggest that more action will be needed to meet Canada’s climate change commitments. This highlights the importance of ongoing dialogue and discussion of new ideas to continue driving Canada towards a low carbon future, which is a key component of the Government of Canada’s recent Generation Energy initiative.