Atlanta: Electric power resources are projected to be adequate to meet increasing peak demand over the next 10 years across the continent, NERC finds in its December 19 long-term assessment.
However, the addition of large amounts of utility-scale wind, solar and natural gas generation combined with a major influx of energy storage technology will require continued enhancements to system planning and operations, the reliability organization says. More than 330 GW of solar and wind capacity are planned for installation through 2029, according to the 2019 Long-Term Reliability Assessment. Meanwhile, the rate of transmission infrastructure development needed to support these variable resources and system expansion has declined. Under 15,000 circuit miles of new transmission is expected over the next 6 years; this is considerably less than the nearly 40,000 circuit miles planned earlier this decade, the report finds.
Distributed energy resources (DERs) and storage are increasingly offering electricity customers options to reduce energy costs and create additional resilience. By their nature, DERs are being implemented at the electric distribution level, resulting in a possible net source of power injected into the Bulk Power System.
“The amount of variable, inverter-based and electricity storage resources identified in this year’s report serves as an early indicator of a transforming bulk power system,” said John Moura, Director of Reliability Assessment and Performance Analysis. “As we navigate the complex and technical challenges facing the industry, the ERO Enterprise is committed to enhancing our reliability assessments, strengthening our guidance to industry and calibrating requirements that preserve bulk power system reliability.”
As a key element of the transformation, the assessment finds that approximately 35 GW of distributed solar photovoltaic and 8 GW of utility-scale electricity storage are expected by 2024. Reserve margins are generally at or above recommended levels in all areas of North America over the 10-year outlook, with only Ontario and ERCOT in Texas projected to fall below reliability standards. NERC acknowledges the market mechanisms underway in Ontario to address the shortfall in future capacity auctions.