In an unusual article for a major science journal, the January 13 issue of Science magazine carries an article by then still-sitting US President Barack Obama.
In “The irreversible momentum of clean energy,” President Obama puts forward four reasons he sees for that trend, considerations that he believes should also guide his country's policies:
• “Economies grow, emissions fall”
Carbon dioxide emissions in the United States have fallen by 9.5% in the country between 2008 and 2015, while simultaneously the economy grew by over 10%. As he puts it, "[T]he amount of energy consumed per dollar of real gross domestic product (GDP) fell by almost 11%, the amount of CO2 emitted per unit of energy consumed declined by 8%, and CO2 emitted per dollar of GDP declined by 18%." Similar trends have emerged in other countries around the world. To point up the fact, he cites the International Energy Agency: “There have been only four periods in the past 40 years in which CO2 emission levels were flat or fell compared with the previous year, with three of those—the early 1980s, 1992, and 2009—being associated with global economic weakness. By contrast, the recent halt in emissions growth comes in a period of economic growth.”
• “Private-sector emissions reductions”
Companies are deciding to cut their energy waste and invest the saved money more productively, including in new jobs. A U.S. Department of Energy report released early in January found that some 2.2 million Americans are currently employed in the design, installation, and manufacture of energy-efficiency products and services, versus about half that employed in the production of fossil fuels and their use for electric power generation.
• “Market forces in the power sector”
Market dynamics are driving greenhouse gas emissions down in the electric power sector, the largest source of GHG emissions in the US economy, notably because of the comparative cost of natural gas versus coal. But the cost of electricity from wind has fallen by 41% between 2008 and 2015, 54% for rooftop solar and 64% for utility-scale solar.
• “Global momentum”
The President believes that the climate agreement signed in Paris in late 2015 represents a genuine international ambition, a “fundamental [and irreversible] shift in the diplomatic landscape,” walking away from which would undermine the interests of the US itself.
No country is better suited than the United States to confront the climate challenge and reap the economic benefits of a low-carbon future, he argues, and urges the new President to pursue corresponding policies.