The rate of growth in the world's electricity consumption continues to decline compared to the rate of growth in the world's GDP, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) finds in its latest International Energy Outlook 2016 (IEO2016).
From 2005 to 2012, world GDP increased by 3.7%/year, while world net electricity generation rose by 3.2%/year. That process is helped by policies in many parts of the world aimed at improving energy productivity (Figure 5-2). In the IEO 2016 Reference case, world GDP grows by 3.3%/year, while world net electricity generation grows by 1.9%/year, from 2012 to 2040. The 69% increase in world electricity generation through 2040 is far below what it would be if economic growth and electricity demand growth maintained the same relationship they had in the recent past, the IEA notes.
Probably unsurprisingly, that trend is most pronounced in OECD countries, while non-OECD countries are projected to increase their proportion of electricity generation from slightly more than half, in 2012, to 61% in 2040. That would represent a near doubling, from 11.3 trillion kWh in 2012 to 22.3 trillion kWh in 2040.
Among the report's findings, coal, natural gas, and renewable energy sources provide roughly equal shares (28%-29%) of world electricity generation by 2040. In 2012 coal provided 40% of all power generation.
In the reference case, hydropower and wind form the two largest contributors to the increase in world electricity generation from renewable energy sources, together accounting for two-thirds of the total increase from 2012 to 2040. Hydropower and wind generation each increase by about 1.9 trillion kilowatt-hours in the reference case.