Driven by the expansion of coal-fired power generation in China and India, coal will continue to be the first choice for new power generation, according to a report by an industry analyst.
Projections by the McIlvaine company indicate that between 2009 and 2020, 800 GW of coal-fired capacity will be built, compared to less than 500 GW for gas-fired and 55 GW for nuclear. This forecast is contained in a report titled “Fossil & Nuclear Power Generation: World Analysis & Forecast.”
GWH by Fuel Type 2008
| Fuel Type
| U.S. GWH
| U.S. %
| China GWH
| China %
|
| Coal
| 2000
| 49.0
| 2500
| 82.9
|
| Gas
| 839
| 20.5
| 14
| 0.5
|
| Nuclear
| 816
| 20.0
| 3
| 0.1
|
| Hydro
| 317
| 7.8
| 435
| 14.5
|
| Biomass
| 49
| 1.1
| 1
| 0.0
|
| Waste
| 23
| 0.6
| 54
| 1.8
|
| Geothermal
| 16
| 0.4
| 1
| 0.0
|
| Solar
| 1
| 0.0
| 1
| 0.0
|
| Wind
| 26
| 0.6
| 6
| 0.2
|
| Other
| 2
| 0.0
| 1
| 0.0
|
| Total
| 4089
| 100
| 3016
| 100
|
McIlvaine notes that coal is starting from a larger base so the expansion rate will only be 4.5% vs. 5.3% for gas. They believe that nuclear has a bright future beyond 2020 but the market is developing slowly and wind is growing at double-digit rates. Offshore wind is growing at more than 20%/yr, starting from a very small base.
| Generation Type
| 2009 GW
| 2020 GW
| % Increase Total
|
| Nuclear
| 375
| 430
| 15
|
| Coal
| 1600
| 2400
| 50
|
| Gas
| 823
| 1300
| 58
|
| Total
| 2798
| 4130
| 48
|
The company continues its analysis by observing that wind could account for 30% of European power generation by 2030. But in the time frame through 2020 only nuclear, coal, gas, and hydro will have significant impact.
The reliance on coal is seen in a comparison of China and the U.S. in terms of electricity output.
China is generating more electricity from coal than is the U.S. On the other hand, it has no other significant source of power other than hydro. It leads the world in both wind and solar activity but it is doing so from a very low base. It has an active nuclear program and will account for many of the nuclear reactors built prior to 2020, but this is still a relatively small amount of capacity.
In Europe and the U.S. the climate change concerns continue to slow usage of coal for new generation.
However, one development, McIlvaine notes, is the co-location of cellulosic biomass and coal-firing. For example, Great Rivers Energy is moving forward with this combination at its new Spiritwood facility. The carbon footprint of the combination is less than for a stand-alone gas-fired power plant. The reason is the use of waste steam by the ethanol plant and waste biomass by the coal-fired power plant.
For more information on the report by the McIlvaine Company, Fossil & Nuclear Power Generation: World Analysis & Forecast (Formerly World Coal-Fired), go to http://www.mcilvainecompany.com/brochures/energy.html#n043.