In less than two years Ontario has gone from marginal status to world leader in the field of photovoltaic solar energy. Not only has the world’s largest photovoltaic (PV) power plant started up in Sarnia, Ontario, but dozens of sizable new generating facilities are in operation or under development, and potentially thousands of micro-scale installations are going up on farms and on rooftops across the province. Manufacturers and installers are in full-out expansion mode and R&D work is accelerating. The outlook has never been brighter for the domestic solar power business.
“Ontario’s grid-connected photovoltaic generating capacity shot up from 11 MW at the end of 2008 to nearly 200 MW at the end of 2010,” says APPrO Executive Director Jake Brooks, “an increase well over tenfold in two years.” If the supply contracts approved by the Ontario Power Authority come to fruition, capacity could exceed 400 MW within a couple of years. In fact, the OPA has awarded contracts for well over 1500 MW of PV. Very few power generation technologies have enjoyed such rapid expansion since the early days of the power system. “PV has made a stunning debut in Ontario,” Brooks says, “which only heightens interest in the questions surrounding its next phase of development.”
Although growth rates will certainly level off, Ontario’s power grid is undergoing a crash course in how to deal with solar energy. What was once a niche technology, primarily for cottages and remote installations, is now a significant contributor to the bulk power system. With its own unique set of operating characteristics, engineers and grid managers are quickly getting up to speed on both the challenges and opportunities of PV. What volumes will it produce? Will it be installed predominantly in micro, mini or macro scale configurations? What changes will be made in grid operation to accommodate PV’s unique characteristics? How will PV deployment be integrated with other technologies like electric vehicles, building energy systems, and smart grid development? These are all questions that are occupying the minds of system planners, to say nothing of the generation sector.
Perhaps the only commercial technology for bulk power generation that requires no moving parts (aside from the occasional cooling fan) photovoltaics offer a range of benefits to customers and the grid. While at the moment the cost of power from PV is higher than that from other more conventional sources of power, it is declining. Supporters point to a series of benefits that help to offset the costs:
1. PV produces effectively zero emissions during the power generation process.
2. PV equipment is extremely durable, long-lasting and reliable, with relatively little of its infrastructure subject to rapidly wearing out with usage.
3. The maintenance and operating costs are minimal.
4. Producing power during daylight hours when human activity is at its peak, the natural output pattern of PV is well-matched with natural consumption patterns, under-pinning a range of technical advantages and conversion efficiencies.
5. In some circumstances the characteristics of PV installations make them excellent hosts for additional technology with grid stabilization capabilities, and a natural contributor to the development of a smarter grid.
6. The technology is highly scalable, built from many identical modules, allowing for economies of scale to be reached relatively quickly and applied in a multitude of settings.
7. CanSIA, the Canadian Solar Industries Association, sees the solar industry (electrical and thermal energy) supporting more than 35,000 jobs by 2025 – more than any other energy source per MW and dollar invested, CanSIA says.
Peter Carrie of First Solar, the manufacturer behind the Enbridge Sarnia Project, notes that even though the installation is designed to produce 80 MW, it is capable of operating as 80 separate 1 MW units without adaptation. If one unit goes out of service for any reason, it need not affect the others.
The rapid growth of PV power has not escaped the notice of the broader power generation industry. Dave Butters, President of APPrO, speaking at the Canadian German PV conference on March 2, outlined the changes he is seeing in the energy landscape. The public, as expressed through the provincial government’s energy policy, is in effect asking the power system to provide a much wider range of services than what was previously expected. The industry, the regulators and consumers will have to adapt. Although solar energy may be an attractive way of meeting environmental objectives, Butters cautioned proponents about the potential for resistance from consumers – the most important stakeholders in the picture – who may not be fully ready to shoulder the additional costs of a power system that is built to serve environmental objectives on a large scale. Further information on Mr. Butters remarks is available on the APPrO magazine website. (See also “How much is solar actually costing us?” page 28.) Of course, as PV costs come down, consumer resistance to the technology will also decline.
While Ontario has rapidly become a global contender in terms of installing PV capacity, it is no slouch in the manufacturing department either. Half a dozen companies are making crystalline solar in Ontario. Assembly and lamination is often done in Ontario, even if the cells are made elsewhere. One company in particular, Canadian Solar, is one of the top manufacturers in the world. Another, Morgan Solar, has developed a unique patented technology that could seriously challenge others on a cost-per-installed-kW basis. Ontario’s domestic content rules have also spurred development of a host of companies providing balance-of-plant: everything from racking to control systems and invertors.
Why has Ontario, a northern jurisdiction with a lot of cloudy days (see graph, for example), leapt to the forefront in this field? While the province’s pro-renewables public policy plays a central role, other factors are also at work. Ontario is attractive for PV development, Peter Carrie of First Solar says, because of a combination of price, climate, tax regime, policy stability, and the overall predictability of the business environment.
No doubt the future of PV depends on how quickly the installed cost per kilowatt comes down. In some places in the US where tax incentives are particularly generous, power from photovoltaics is being offered at 15 cents per kilowatt-hour. Many in the industry (as well as the industry Association) are talking about reaching “grid parity” within a decade, foreseeing a time when solar power will be able to replace many forms of bulk power on an economic basis. If that happens, the manufacturers will be undergoing massive expansion, and Ontario’s early efforts to become a locus of development could prove to be a sizable boost for the economy as well as the environment.
As an example, the power projects currently in operation or being built by First Solar in Ontario, are expected to produce a billion dollars worth of investment in the province, and 1000 person-years of employment. No wonder it’s got the eye of provincial policy makers.
This is truly PV’s time in the sun.
Related stories in this feature:
What’s behind Ontario’s PV boom?
First Solar and the Sarnia solar farm
Enbridge, First Solar announce more projects
Ontario’s solar sector evolves to meet the challenge of large scale application
The evolution of PV technology
Competition in the PV industry evolving quickly
How much is solar actually costing us?
Extracting additional benefits from solar installations
APPrO President addresses 4th Canadian German Solar PV conference